Optimistic Bears (Redux)

    Analyze Optimism during the month of July

    Introduction

    what is optimism?

    optimism network is a layer2 solution that is created to solve the scalability problems of the Ethereum network. The Optimism Network uses optimistic solutions (Optimistic Roll-up) to increase scalability. In this solution, optimism network by collecting and executing transactions on its network and sending them in a compact manner and in the form of a transaction to the Ethereum network, causes the scalability, speed of transactions and their Fee to be significantly reduced.

    A brutal bear market can have extensive effects on the entire external and internal structure of a network or completely change the behavior of addresses or users of a chain, this change of behavior can cause decline and bad performance of key network parameters. .

    Now a successful chain that has managed to gain the trust of its users can escape from this cruel market or even use this situation to its advantage.

    Now the issue of this bounty is that in the bear market that we saw in July, was Optimism able to show itself as a reliable chain or not?

    Method

    contracts and summary on how I collected the data:

    summary

    • I extracted OP token price from the optimism.core.fact_hourly token prices table

    • I used optimism.core.fact_blocks and optimism.core.fact_transactions tables for network performance, TPS : the total number of transactions of all blocks of the day divided by the number of seconds of the day

      Average block Time: the average Time (seconds) between two blocks

    • I got all the information about the transactions from the optimism.core.fact_transactions table

    • OP & ETH transfers Volume calculated with help of optimism.core.fact_token_transfers table

    • I extracted number of deployed contracts with help of

      optimism.core.fact_traces table

    • for bridge stats I included native bridge, hop and CbridgeV2

    • for swap stats I included velodrome, Beethoven, Rubicon, sushiswap and Clipper

    • for Velodrome TVL change I used optimism.core.fact_token_transfers table to collect the IN/out flows to the pools of Velodrome

    our approach for answering the bounty questions:

    First, I have to say that beside July I included June and August As the months before and after July. The reason for this is to better understand the changes and to be able to compare the data obtained in the month of July with other months data so that we can better measure the impact of the market on it.

    we will have 9 sections:

    1. OP prices: The token price of a network can represent all the activities that happened within the network, so we started this dashboard with the OP token price.

    2. Network performance: In this section, we will review the overall performance of the network, including TPS and other important and influential parameters

    3. Transcations stats: Here we analyze the number of transactions and active addresses and see if the network was active during this period or not.

    4. OP & ETH transfers Volume: We take a look at the volume of OP and ETH transfers within Optimism

    5. Contract deploying stats: To see how the activity within the network that aims to develop the ecosystem was in this month

    6. Bridging (inflow/outflow) Stats:

      The measure of users' interest in a Layer 2 network can be measured by seeing the bridging Stats, so it is important to have a place here

    7. NFTs: NFTs have become an inseparable part of the crypto world and should be included in any review of a chain.

    8. Swap Stats: Swapping is the most popular activity within the network, so I think that's reason enough to check it out

    9. Velodrome TVL change: Velodrome is probably the most important platform for optimism, that's why I put a separate coin section for it so that we can check its TVL changes.

    All the Volume and price numbers are in USD

    Conclusion

    1. the price of OP token went up very well on July
    2. Compared to June and August, we did not see a bad network performance, but at the same time, it was not at its best either
    3. The number of daily transactions in July was in an upward trend, but it is still not enough to say that the transactions of this month were high.
    4. Out of 63K active addresses on July 27, 27K addresses are new
    5. programmers' activity or the development of the ecosystem was not in a good mood in July,
    6. unlike June and August, outflow volume is closer to the inflow volume in July
    7. number of NFTs sales, the volume and the number of buyers in July have recorded lower numbers compared to the previous and subsequent months
    8. on July 29, we saw the highest daily volume of swaps during all the days of these three months with an amount of 94M USD.
    9. in July velodrome TVL has increased by about 113M USD,

    Thanks For your time

    Twitter: Abbas_ra21

    date: 2022-11-09

    Picture source: Link

    Answer

    Both OP and ETH daily transfer volumes were at their lowest possible levels in July, and we can see the lowest daily transfer volume in July for both ETH and OP.

    This strange decrease in transfers, especially for OP, can be due to the interest of users to keep their tokens due to the price increase in this month. To emphasize this conclusion, we can see that on August 16, we see a strange volume that coincides with the price decreasing of OP token and this means users lost their interest to keep and hold

    1. OP Price
    1. Contract deploying stats

    Observations

    One of the most interesting observations that can be reported about the month of July is related to the TVL changes of the Velodrome platform in this month, which the graphs show that in this month the TVL has increased by about 113M USD, much higher than the rest of the months.

    In the daily statistics of changes, we often see an increase in TVL in July, unlike the jun and Aug when the number of days with negative changes or a decrease in TVL is high.

    1. Swap Stats
    1. OP & ETH transfers Volume
    1. NFTs
    1. Bridging (inflow/outflow) Stats

    Observations

    In this month, we had less inflow and outflow volume than in August and June, but the noteworthy point is that our outflow volume is closer to the inflow volume in this month, and from this point we can conclude that the growth of outflow volume is more and as We see that in many days we see large outflow volumes (compared to the volume of other days in July).

    Regarding the number of bridgers, the distance between inflow and outflow is still large, so in July we had 12K bridgers to Optimism, while the number of bridgers to Ethereum was about 4K. But on both sides, we see a low number of daily bridgers in July compared to other months, especially June

    Another point that is important here, and perhaps it can be seen as a kind of confirmation for the first paragraph, is that in July, we saw a new ceiling for the average value of the bridge towards Ethereum, an event that cannot be seen in inflow.

    Observations

    In all three parameters, the number of sales, the volume and the number of buyers in July have recorded lower numbers compared to the previous and subsequent months. In the daily statistics, we see something like this, although we saw a good upward trend in the number of sales in July, which went up to 2098 sales.

    1. Velodrome State

    Observations

    In July, the volume of swaps was higher than the previous month, which is June, and in addition to this, in the daily volume of swaps, on July 29, we saw the highest daily volume of swaps during all the days of these three months with an amount of 94M USD. Regarding the number of swappers, we see higher number compared to June.

    The average swap size in July was in an upward trend, and the highest daily average in July was on July 27th and July 19th at around 235 USD.

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    OUTFLOW

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    Observations

    The number of contracts deployed can be an indicator of the programmers' activity or the development of the ecosystem. This parameter was not in a good mood in July, so in July we had 11.47K new contracts, compared to August with 17K contracts and June with 84K contracts is very lower.

    In the daily statistics of new contracts, we see very lower numbers compared to the previous month, June

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    Observations

    In July, we saw the price of OP token rise from around 0.4 USD to 1.8 USD, which means more than 300% increase, while in the months before and after July, June and August, we saw price decreasing. This price increase could have helped to attract users to the chain, we will see whether it was so or not

    1. Transactions Stats
    1. Network performance
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    Observations

    The average time to form a block (between two blocks) was at its highest value at the beginning of July, but as we move towards the end of July, we see decreasing from 1.58 seconds at its highest to 0.31 seconds. Looking in general, we can conclude that a downward trend for this average was formed in July, unlike the previous month, June, when we had an upward trend.

    In the month of July, we saw an increase in TPS from 0.64 transactions per second to 3.14 transactions per second, and we saw this TPS increase only in this month.

    Although we saw the highest daily percentage of failed transactions in June, we cannot ignore the upward trend of this percentage in July, in such a way that its percentage increased from 4% to nearly 14% until August comes, and this percentage started to reduce

    Observations

    Although we saw an upward trend in the number of daily transactions in July, it was not enough to surpass the number of transactions in the other two months, June and August, and it can be clearly seen that we had less transactions number in July.

    If we don't consider June 1st, we can see that the highest number of active addresses happened in July and on the 27th, with about 63K active addresses, but with all this, the number of active addresses in July was less compared to the following and previous months. Another point is that this increase in the active address on July 27 coincides with the sharp increase in the OP price, which is not ineffective in this case.

    There are two interesting points about the number of new addresses, the first is that we saw 63K active addresses on July 27, and now we can see that we have about 27K new addresses that registered their first transaction on this date. All this coincides with the increase in the price of OP, which can be the reason for attracting users. And the second point is that we have more new addresses in this month compared to the following month, which is August, but compared to June, we have registered a smaller number.

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