New Year New Activity

    The holidays and New Year are often chaotic in the crypto and DEFI space, as users make a spree of new transactions and wallets as they receive (and give) some cash and coins as holiday gifts. How has this activity impacted the crypto and DEFI ecosystems? Are users creating new wallets or buying tokens with their newfound holiday wealth? Are they staking all those new tokens once they get them? Or are they selling tokens to pay for their own gifts and holiday travel?

    What is NEAR Protocol?

    NEAR Protocol is a public Proof-of-Stake (PoS) blockchain that aims to bring DeFi to the masses with low transfer fees and fast transactions.

    Its consensus mechanism is Proof-of-Stake and it uses sharding technology to achieve speed and scalability. NEAR also provides a bridge and scaling solution for the Ethereum blockchain. NEAR Protocol uses PoS consensus to secure and validate transactions on the blockchain. Validators earn NEAR Token rewards for producing new blocks in the form of a static inflation rate of about 4.5% each year.

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    What is Solana ?

    Solana is a blockchain platform designed to host decentralized, scalable applications. Solana can process many more transactions per second and charges lower transaction fees than rival blockchains like Ethereum.

    Solana uses a proof-of-history consensus mechanism. This algorithm uses timestamps to define the next block in Solana's chain. Most early cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin and Litecoin, use a proof-of-work algorithm to define the blocks in their chains.

    What is FLOW?

    Flow is a blockchain platform that originally was designed for gaming purposes, but has expanded since its launch in 2020. The flow blockchain enables fast, low-cost transactions and supports smart contracts. It powers blockchain applications including NBA Top Shot, a non-fungible token (NFT) offering.

    Methodology

    In this dashboard, I am going to analyze the users’ behavior on 3 non-EVM chains (FLOW, NEAR & SOLANA) around new year holidays and compare the activity on these days vs days after and before that.

    For this purpose, I am going to firstly analyze the overall activity on chain on these days like number of transactions, active users, new first-time users, transfers within the chain and also transfers to/from centralized exchanges.

    Then, I am going to analyze these ecosystems’ tokens price change and also their native token ($FLOW, $NEAR and $SOL) on these days.

    Then, I am going to analyze NFT trading activity on these days,

    Then, I am going to analyze staking/unstaking activity on these days.

    and then, I am going to analyze the swap activity on these chains around new year.

    In this dashboard, I have analyzed data from 1 week before holiday beginning (17th December 2022) till today (5th January 2023). I have highlighted Dec. 24 2022 - Jan. 3 2023 as “Holidays” and the other days are known as “Other Days”.

    Since we are comparing 3 different chains with various currencies, I have used price_tables to calculate the $USD value of transactions in order to compare them correctly in terms of volume.

    The main purpose of this bounty is to realize how users are acting with their cash (received as gift or etc.) in these days, how are they using their cryptocurrencies in these 3 mentioned chains

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    According to the above charts, we can see almost higher numeber of transactions on all chains during the holidays compared to the other days. Moreover, we can see high number of new first-time wallets who have registered on these networks (especially Solana that can be mainly because of $BONK token launch) on Holidays. On the other hand and In terms of number of active users, we can see slightly lower number of active users on Holidays compared to the other regular days, As it was predictable, Solana is the most active chain among these 3 especially in terms of number of transactions and we can see this chain has by far the highest share of transactions, active and new users in all days.

    Transactions and Users Overview

    Tokens’ Transfers

    on above and left charts, we can see high activity of tokens’ transfers within these chains during holidays in both terms of number and volume of transfers. The average volume of transactions on Holidays is way more than other regular days especially in the last days of the year 2022 and its interesting.

    As it was predictable, Solana has by far the highest number and also volume of transfers among these chains and the most transfer activity belong to this chain.

    Anyway, we can see some high spikes of transfers volume on NEAR and FLOW chains during the 2 last days of the year 2022 (28, 29 December) while on Solana, the highest spike achieved during the day after Holidays (4th January 2023).

    On the left charts, its clearly visible that number of token transfers on Holidays were more than other days but in terms of volume, the difference between these 2 timespans are less.

    Centralized Exchanges Outflow/Inflows

    In this part, we can say that users who are sending their assets to the Centralized Exchanges are willing to sell their asset (receive Cash in order to spend on holidays), on the other hand, users who are sending their asset from Centralized Exchanges to their wallets, have bought some cryptos with their received cashes/gifts.

    On the above charts, I have analyzed the transfers to/from Centralized exchanges during the new year timespan.

    As we see, the highest number of CEXs transfers achieved on the first days after Holidays (3rd and 4th January) and on the other hand, the highest volume and average volume of transfers to/from these platforms have achieved during the last days before holidays beginning (21st and 22nd December). There is also an high spikes of average transfers volume on 29th December (last day before New Year).

    Totally, we can see that number and volume of transfers to Centralized Exchanges (~Selling Tokens and Exchange Them For Cash) in all days especially during Holidays is more than transfers from CEXs (~Exchange Cash For Tokens = Buying Them). So, we can kinda say that users are selling tokens to pay for their own gifts and holiday travel!

    Tokens’ Prices

    On the above left chart, we can see the performance of 3 native tokens on these chains ($SOL, $FLOW and $NEAR) around new year holidays. As we see, $FLOW has experienced least volatiles during this timespan and SOL experienced the highest volatiles.

    From 17 to 29 December 2022, the $SOL price has decreased significantly from $12 to $9 but after 29th December, $SOL price has increased significantly and reached one of its highest prices in last months (~$14). this rally can be mainly because of increasing activity on Solana chain especially because of the $BONK token release. (as I have analyzed the activity on this chain around $BONK release in this dashboard).

    $NEAR token price has also experienced growth after Holidays.

    Totally, we can see that during Holidays, the price of tokens has decreased or remain steady and there was not high increasing trend of their value during holiday but after a while especially since the start of the year 2023, we can almost see an increasing trend of tokens’ value over time.

    On the right chart, I have calculated the average $PRICE of FLOW, NEAR and SOLANA ecosystems’ tokens around new year. As we see, there is almost a constant trend of tokens’ price during Holidays to the extent that on these days, we can see the least volatiles compared to the days after and especially before Holidays beginning.

    NFT Trading Activity

    On the above charts, we can see the NFT trading activity by users around New Year timespan. As we see, in all terms of number of traders, number of traders (buyers & sellers) and also total and average volume of sales, the NFT trading activity has increased significantly during Holidays. The only metric that has kinda decreased during Holidays is Median Volume of sales that can be related to the Tokens' prices that has kinda decreased during Holidays (which also continued to decrease after Holidays). The highest NFT trading activity belong to the Solana chain and FLOW is on the second rank while NEAR has the least NFT trading activity among these chains. So, despite heavy decreasing activity and volume of NFT trading during the last months of the year 2022, we can see kinda increasing NFT trading activity during New Year holidays and also the days after that and this can be good news for NFT ecosystem on these chains that may be able to recover their crash because of the market bearish situation. in average daily bar-charts, the dominant of Holidays compared to the Other Days in all terms of number of trades, buyers, sellers and also volume of sales is clearly visible.

    Staking/Unstaking Activity

    In this part, I have analyzed the staking/unstaking activity on these chains during New Year timespan.

    the Staking activity on Holidays is more than Staking activity on Other days. Also, as it is obvious, totally the staking activity in both timespans is more than Unstaking activity but the average volume of Unstakes is more than Stakes.

    Totally, the total number of stakes and unstakes and also their volume during Other days were mroe than Holiday timespan but as mentioned, the staking activity on Holidays is more than Staking activity on other days.

    We can see the highest number and also volume of unstakes during the last days of the year 2022 and this can be may be because users were going to unstake their asset and spend them on Holidays (for gifts/ travels / etc.)

    Swaps Activity

    On the above charts, we can see the swap activity on these 3 chains during new year timespan.

    As we see, the number of swaps on Holidays has increased significantly especially in Solana chain while the volume of these swaps on Other days is more than Holiday swaps.

    The positive-increasing trend of swap activity on these chains has mainly started since the first holiday date (24th December 2022) and is increasing more and more as time goes on even after the end of the Holidays.

    On the average daily charts, we can clearly see that number of Swaps on Holidays were more than Other Days but in terms of volume, Other Days swaps were more worthy.

    Stablecoins Swap Actvitiy

    In this part, We can assume that users who are swapping their assets to stablecoins are selling their tokens and on the other hand, the swaps from stablecoins to other assets are assumed as buying new tokens.

    And on the above charts, I have analyzed the swap activity based on Swaps to/from stablecoins. The reason that I have performed this analysis is to realise weather users tend to buy or sell their asset via Swap programs.

    As we see, in almost all days, the number and volume of swaps from stablecoins is more than swaps to stablecoins and this can be concluded that users tend to buy new assets rather than selling them.

    As we have seen on the previous part, the number of stablecoins swaps during Holidays were more than Other Days but the volume of swaps on Other Days were more.

    Also, during the last days of the year 2022 (days before New Year Beginning) the highest spike of swaps to stablecoins (selling assets) has achieved.

    Summary and Conclusion

    • Based on the above analysis, Solana, NEAR and FLOW chains have experienced high volatile days during the last days of the past year and especially during Holidays.
    • The number of transactions and also new users who have firstly joined these networks has increased significantly during Holidays and this can be mainly because users were going to trade/transfer/use their received coins/cryptocurrencies/cashes in Cryptocurrency market and DeFi ecosystem..
    • Despite higher number of transactions on Holidays, the paid volume on fees has decreased during Holidays and increased significantly after Holiday timespan.
    • The activity of an average user on Solana and Flow has increased during Holidays but in NEAR ecosystem, there was not significant change of an average user’s activity on chain.
    • The volume and especially number of tokens transfers on these chains has increased during the Holiday timespan compared to the other regular days and this can be mainly because users were going to transfer their asset within their wallets or exchange them via Centralized exchanges as we have also seen the high number and volume of transfers to Centralized Exchanges during Holidays that can because users were going to exchange/sell their received gifts/assets.
    • The NFT ecosystem has experienced good days after the end of the year 2022 (started mainly since 24th December, the first holiday day) and the volume and also number of NFT trades and also the number of active traders on Holidays has increased signifncaitly that also continues after Holiday during the year 2023. So, we can be hopeful that NFT ecosystem (that experienced dark days during the last months of the year 2022) is kinda recovering itself in the new year.
    • The number and volume of staking activity during Holidays has increased significantly compared to the other regular days. on the other hand, we have seen the highest unstaking activity during the last days of the year 2022 and before new year and this can be mainly because users were trying to unstake their asset in order to spend them in real life (holiday gifts,travels,etc)
    • The swap activity during Holidays has also increased significantly compared to the other regular days but however the volume of swaps on Other Days were more than Holiday swaps.
    • Also, we have seen in almost all days, the number and volume of swaps from stablecoins was more than swaps to stablecoins and this can be concluded that users tend to buy new assets rather than selling them. Also, during the last days of the year 2022 (days before New Year Beginning) the highest spike of swaps to stablecoins (selling assets) has achieved.

    Discord: Ali3N#8546 Twitter: Alik_110 Email: Alik110.72@Gmail.com

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    Transactions Fees

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    On these charts, I have analyzed the paid fees on transactions on these chains during the new year timespan.

    As we see, despite higher number of transactions on holidays (as we have seen on previous part), the volume of paid fees on transactions has significantly decreased during the holidays and days after holidays, we can see some huge high spikes of paid fees on transactions especially on 5th December.

    Totally, the average transactions fees on NEAR chain is more than 2 other chains and FLOW chain has by far the least average fees on transactions.

    On the left chart, we can clearly see that the paid fees on transactions dring Holidays is way less than Other regular days.

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    On the left chart, we can see the average daily number of transactions made by an average user on Solana, NEAR and FLOW ecosystem.

    As we see, the users activity during Holidays on Solana and Flow chains has slightly increased while on NEAR we do not see a significant change in user behavior (slightly decreased).