New Year, New LUNA?

    The holidays and New Year are often chaotic in the crypto and DEFI space, as users make a spree of new transactions and wallets as they receive (and give) some cash and coins as holiday gifts. Has this flurry of winter activity impacted the Terra ecosystem? Are users creating new wallets or buying tokens with their newfound holiday wealth? Are they staking all those new tokens once they get them? Or are they selling tokens to pay for their own gifts and holiday travel?

    What is TERRA (LUNA) 2.0 ?

    Terra (LUNA) 2.0 is the newest iteration of cryptocurrency on the Terra blockchain. In May 2022, the Terra blockchain experienced a hard fork prompted by founder Do Kwon and voted on by the community. This created the new Terra 2.0, with a new cryptocurrency, dubbed LUNA or LUNA2, while the original blockchain and coin took on the moniker LUNA Classic, or LUNC. Both blockchains still exist and operate separately, which can cause confusion for new investors. The old token was renamed terra classic (LUNC), and while the original Cosmos chain will continue to operate, the option to mint or burn coins will be disabled. The new blockchain was launched on 28 May 2022. (Read More…)

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    Methodology

    In this dashboard, I am going to analyze the users’ behavior on TERRA 2.0 chain around holidays and new year (2023) and compare the activity on these days vs days before that.

    For this purpose, I am going to firstly the price of $LUNA token around this timespan.

    Then, I am going to analyze the overall activity on chain on these days like number of transactions, active users, new first-time users, transfers within the chain and also transfers to/from centralized exchanges.

    Then, I am going to analyze the swap activity on this chain around new year.

    Then, I am going to analyze NFT trading activity on these days,

    Then, I am going to analyze staking/unstaking/reward claiming from stakes activity on these days.

    Then, I am going to analyze the liquidity providing activity on Terra around new year.

    and Then, I am going to check the deployed contracts on Terra during these timespans.

    In this dashboard, I have analyzed data from Dec. 1st 2022, till today (6th January 2023). I have labeled the days after Dec. 24 2022 “Holidays and New Year” and the other days are known as “Other”.

    The main tables that I have used for this bounty are the majority of terra_core tables: terra.core.ez_messages, terra.core.ez_staking, terra.core.ez_swaps, terra.core.ez_transfers, terra.core.fact_lp_actions, terra.core.fact_msgs, terra.core.fact_nft_mints, terra.core.fact_nft_sales, terra.core.fact_transactions & terra.core.dim_address_labels

    The main purpose of this bounty is to realize how users are acting with their cash (received as gift or etc.) in these days, how are they using their cryptocurrencies in Terra and also how Terra blockchain has performed around New Year.

    $LUNA Price

    On the left chart, we can see that $LUNA token has experienced significant drop on its price during December 2022 and was no table to recover its lost value on days after (holidays and new year) till today.

    $LUNA token price was at $1.6 in 1st December but after a while (started from 14th December) this token’s price has fallen in price and reached $1.2 in just 2 days.

    So, similar to many other cryptocurrencies that are experiencing least volatiles during these days around new year, $LUNA token has also the similar situation.

    Terra Transactions and Users Overview

    According to the above charts, we can almost see steady trend line of transactions with slightly increasing number of active wallets on Terra chain during Holidays and new year. Also, the paid volume for transactions fees has almost steady trend during Holidays and we do not see a significant decreasing/increasing activity of total/average transactions fees on Terra chain over time. However, in the average weekly charts, we can see the transactions activity on Terra during other days (non-holidays and new year) and also the number of active and new users as well as paid transactions on this chain was more than Holidays and New Year and this difference can be mainly because of activity on this chain during the first half of the December 2022.

    Also, on the last right chart, we can see that weekly activity of an average Terra wallet has decreased during Holidays which makes sense.

    So, Totally, Terra chain has not experienced hard volatile days in the last 1 month and also Holidays and New year timespan.

    Tokens Transfers

    In terms of tokens’ transfers, the result is a bit difference that transactions activity.

    Despite steady trend of number of transfers and also senders/receivers on Terra chain during both timespans, the volume of transfers and especially Average volume of these actions has increased significantly during the Holidays and New Year. We can see the highest spike of Transfers’ volume on 27th December (in Holidays and 3 days before New Year) while the highest average volume of transfers achieved on Today (6th January 2023).

    So, we can say that users were actively transfering their assets during these timespan in order to be ready for holidays/travels/new year gifts and etc.

    Transfers To/From Centralized Exchanges

    In this part, we can say that users who are sending their assets to the Centralized Exchanges are willing to sell their asset (receive Cash in order to spend on holidays), on the other hand, users who are sending their asset from Centralized Exchanges to their wallets, have bought some cryptos with their received cashes/gifts.

    In above charts, we can see the share of transfers to CEXs (~selling tokens) especially in terms of number during both timespans is more than transfers from CEXs (~buying tokens). the highest number of CEX transfers activity (both inflow and outflow) has achieved on 27th December (Holidays and 3 Days before new year beginning). But in terms of volume, we can see by far the highest spike of both total and average transfers volume on 1st January 2023 in both paths. Totally, the number of CEXs transfers during other days (non-holidays and non-new year) was more than Holidays and New Year but in terms of volume, we can see Holidays and New Years has the lead by far in both paths. Also, in the normalized charts, we can see increasing share of Transfers To CEXs (~selling tokens) during Holidays compared to the days before that. this means ppl were going to sell their asset in order to spend their received cashes during Holidays and New Year

    Swapping Activity

    On the above charts, we can see the swapping activity on Terrra ecosystem. As we see, the number of active swappers on these timespans are not so different together and there are almost equal number of active swappers on both timespans. In terms of number of swaps, we can see the number of swaps during other days is more than Holiday and New Year but on the other hand in terms of volume, we can see the higher volume of swaps during Holidays and New Year. So, as well as tokens' transfers on Terra, the swap activity on this chain has also decreased during Holiday and New Year but the volume of actions has slightly increased.

    NFT Trading Activity

    In terms of NFT trading activity, we can see a significant increasing trend of NFT trading during Holidays and also the new year.

    The difference in Volume is even higher and we can see increasing trend of NFT trading volume as time goes on compared to the other days before Holidays. But, the average and median volume of sales (which can also be related to Tokens’ prices) have not changed significantly.

    So, despite heavy decreasing activity and volume of NFT trading during the last months of the year 2022, we can see kinda increasing NFT trading activity during New Year holidays and also the days after that and this can be good news for NFT ecosystem that may be able to recover their crash because of the market bearish situation.

    Staking Activity

    In this part, I have analysed the numer and also volume stake activities within Terra ecosystem during recent weeks.

    We do not see a significant change in number of staking activity between these 2 timespans (Other days has slightly more share of Staking and also Unstaking activity) but in terms of volume, we can see high re-delegating activity during the Holidays and also new year as well as slightly increasing number of delegations and also undelegations.

    A huge high spike of redelegation activity has achieved during the last day of the year 2022 (30th December) and there is also another high spike on 25th December (both are holidays timespan).

    Also during the Holidays and New Years, we can see increasing volume of Undelegating so maybe users tend to unstake their asset in order to use/spent them for holidays gifts/travels/other stuff.

    On the above charts, I have analysed the claiming reward activity during these timespans. the interesting thing is the big difference between these 2 timespans. we can see a huge high spike of claiming reward activity on the first day of the year (1st January). this high activity of claiming reward can be because ppl were trying to receive their rewards and spend them in Holidays/new year days.

    Liquidity Providing Actions

    In terms of liquidity providing actions, we do not see a significant change in LP activity during Holidays and New Year and as we see on the right chart, the LP activity during Holidays and New Year is lower than these activities on previous days.

    Top Interacted Programs By Terra Users

    And based on the above charts, in all days and in both timespans, Decentralized Exchanges (especially Astroport as the top leading Terra DEX) was the most popular destination of Terra transactions and on the next ranks, we can see DeFi and NFT ecosystems.

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    Deployed Contracts

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    And on the left charts, we can see the contract deployment activity on Terra ecosystem.

    As we see, the number of new deployed contracts during Holidays and also New Year has slightly decreased compared to the days before that.

    Summary and Conclusion

    According to the above analysis:

    • The overall activity (transactions and active,new users) on Terra ecosytem has decreased slightly during Holidays and New Year. So, the paid fees on Transactions during Holidays and New Year is also less than paid fees on Previous days.
    • $LUNA token has experienced drop on its value during December and was not able at all to recover its lost value till today. as well as many other cryptocurrencies, $LUNA has also experienced least volatiles during Holiday and New Year timespan.
    • There was a high peak of Tokens’ Transfers activity on Terra ecosystem during the past months especially with high volumes during Holidays and New year. Also the average volume of Transfers in Terra ecosystem has increased significantly during Holidays and New Year and this can be mainly because receiving/sending gifts/assets on the occasion of New year or maybe users tend to exchange their asset for cash to spent during these days.
    • Also, the number and especially volume of Transfers To CEXs (selling tokens) has increased significntly during the holidays and new year timespan. meaning that users tend to sell their assets in order to receive cash and spent in real life for gifts/travels/etc.
    • Totally, Terra has experienced high transfer volatiles during Holidays and New Year.
    • The number of active swappers during Holidays and New Year has remained almost steady but the volume of swaps and especially average volume of these actions has increased significantly during Holidays and New Year.
    • In all days, the number and especially volume of swaps from $LUNA (selling it) was more than swaps to $LUNA (buying it). bad news is that this selling pressure on $LUNA even increased during Holidays and new year.
    • The NFT trading activity has increased significantly (especially in terms of volume) during Holidays and New Year and maybe because users were sending gifts as NFTs to each other or maybe they were trading new-released NFTs on the occasion of the New Year. this high activity of NFT trading can be good news because NFT ecosystem has experienced dark days during the last months of the year 2022.
    • Despite NFT Trading, the NFT minting activity has decreased during Holidays and new year and there are less number of active minters and also mint transactions on Terra compared to the days before Holidays.
    • During the holidays and New Year, there was high activity of Redelegations by Terra delegators. Also, we have seen huge high spike of claming staking rewards on the start of the new year (1st January) and this can mainly because users were trying to collect their reward and spend them on Holidays and New Year.
    • There was not significant change of Liquidity providing during Holidays and New Year (has slightly decreased).
    • The number of deployed contracts on Terra ecosystem has decreased slightly during Holidays and New Year.
    • In almost all days, DEXs (especially Astroport) were the most popular destination of Terra transactions.

    Discord: Ali3N#8546 Twitter: Alik_110 Email: Alik110.72@Gmail.com

    NFT Minting Activity

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    And according to the above and left charts, we can see the NFT minting activity has decreased during Holidays and New Year.

    As we see, The only metric that increased during holiday (very slightly) is the number of minted NFT collections. But, the number of active NFT minters and total mint transactions on Terra ecosystem during Holidays and new year have decrased significantly.

    Swaps To/From $LUNA

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    The share of swaps from $LUNA (selling it) in all days especially during holidays and especially in terms of volume is more than swaps to $LUNA (buying it) and this can not be good news for this token and Terra’s ecosystem …