Introduction

In the crypto market, whales play an essential role in the rise and fall of the price of tokens. Therefore, investigating their behavior is valuable. From the point of view of the market cap, Ethereum (ETH) has the largest market share after Bitcoin, so examining its whales' behavior can lead to predicting the market trend and making better decisions. Whales usually use expert analysts to predict the market trend; relevant news reaches them sooner. That's why they react faster to the market trend and have better capital management than a regular user. So users, by Observing the behavior of whales, can partially predict market trends.

Image source

Methodology

Whales in this dashboard mean wallets with more than $10M of ETH in their wallets, and in the first part of this dashboard, transactions above $10M are investigated.

The following questions are answered in this dashboard:

• What tokens are the outflows and inflows from the whale’s wallet on the Ethereum blockchain?
• How much has their wallet balance changed in the last 30 days?
• What was the source and destination of the transfer of tokens, as well as their type?
• What are the most important tokens that whales have swapped on the UniSwap platform?
• What is the relationship between whale wallet cash flow and ETH price changes?

Image source

To answer the above questions, we use the Flipside database. First, Table fact_eth_balancesand the following code were used to obtain the address of the whales' wallet.

select 
distinct USER_ADDRESS, 
BALANCE/pow(10,18) * price as USD_Bal 
from ethereum.core.fact_eth_balances a join ETH_price b on a.BLOCK_TIMESTAMP::date = b.date 
where 1=1 
and USD_Bal >= 1e7

Then, using Table ez_token_transfers, the tokens transferred by them have been analyzed.

In the next part, by Table dim_labels, the destination and source of transfers provided. Due to the high number of transfer transactions entered into Uniswap, this decentralized exchange has been investigated more. Using Table ethereum.uniswapv3.ez_swaps, data related to swaps has been checked on the UniSwap platform.

Ultimately, the cash flow of whales' wallets and their relationship with the price of ETH have been investigated.

Key Insights:

• Over the past 30 days, stablecoins including USDC, USDT, BUSD and DAI have contributed the most to the exit of whales' wallets. The most important point in the graphs on the left is the high volume of FTX token withdrawals on October 31, which is almost 10 days before the bankruptcy of the FTX exchange. This high volume, which is equivalent to $833M, had destructive effects on the market.

• The volume of input to the wallet of whales has been higher than the output in recent days, and a high percentage of the input is made up of stable coins, which indicates the reduction of risk by whales.

• The noteworthy point is the negative changes in the volume of USDT and DAI, which are -$760M and -$63M, respectively.

3. What was the source and destination of the transfer of tokens, as well as their type?

4. What are the most important tokens that whales have swapped on the UniSwap platform?

• Regarding the number of swaps, USDC to WTH has the largest share on the Uniswap platform.
• The great interest of whales in swapping their tokens to WTH on the Uniswap platform is remarkable, and most of them have converted their assets to this token.
• The number of swaps and their average has intensified since November 7 and reached its maximum number on November 10.
• Surprisingly, whales have even done a high number of WBTC to WETH swaps, which is remarkable.

5. What is the relationship between whale wallet cash flow and ETH price changes?

• As stated at the beginning, due to the availability of expert experts and reliable information, whales show action earlier than ordinary users about market conditions.
• The volume of entry and exit and the overall activity of whales has grown significantly in recent weeks, especially since November 6.
• On November 10 and at the price floor of ETH, $480M(ETH) exits from whales' wallet.
• From November 1, the volume of Ethereum output from whales' wallets started to increase.
• From November 6, at the same time as the price of Ethereum decreased, there was a significant increase, which shows the high activity of whales and the swap of ETH by whales into stablecoins.

Conclusion

• According to the results presented in each part, the whales started their activities faster than the market collapsed.
• Whales, to manage the risk of high-risk assets in centralized exchanges such as Coinbase and Binance, as well as the Decentralized exchange such as Uniswap, have swapped to lower-risk tokens.
• The amount of whales' stablecoin has increased, which is one of the signs of a market crash, and in such cases, whales try to reduce risk and exit from high-risk assets.
• As a result, there is a direct relationship between the entry and exit of ETH, the second market coin in terms of market cap, from the whales’ wallet with the bullishness and bearishness of the market.

Analysis

Key Insights:

• The largest number of daily transfers by whales entered decentralized exchanges, with Uniswap taking the first place with 62.1%.
• This high number and the state of the market these days indicate the swap of altcoins to stablecoins in Uniswap, which will be discussed in the next section.

1. What tokens are the outflows and inflows from the whale’s wallet on the Ethereum blockchain?
2. How much has their wallet balance changed in the last 30 days?

Key Insights:

• The source of transactions is entering the wallet of whales with a high share at the disposal of centralized exchanges such as Coinbase and Binance, whose growth in the number of transactions has started since October 31.
• As you can see, the number of transfer transactions originating from the FTX exchange has seen a significant growth in the last two weeks due to the negative news related to this exchange and the whales are withdrawing their assets from this exchange.

Thank you for being with me so far in this analysis. If you have any questions, you can ask through the following ways. I will be pleased to answer the questions.

Discord: mr_nobody73#9620

Twitter: Mr_Nobody73

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