Overtime Markets - Profitable Traders

    Intro

    Thales is a protocol that allows for the creation of peer-to-peer parimutuel markets that anyone can join. A Parimutuel Market is a market where the collateral is locked in a pool and the final payout to participants is not determined until after the market-settling event finalizes. There are several types of markets, including Up and Down markets, ranged markets, exotic markets, and Overtime Markets.

    Overtime markets is a fully on-chain sports AMM with Chainlink sport feeds, allowing users to bet on Soccer, Football, MMA, and Baseball. For this bounty we will be focused on the Overtime volume on Optimism.

    Approach

    In this dashboard, we are looking for the most 5 Profitable Trades on Overtime markets in past 2 weeks.

    First, we will identify the most 5 profitable traders, and then, we will look at the sports,games and sub-sports which they have made their profit from.

    in the beginning of the dashboard, I have provided some info about overtime markets== ,then we will go straight to the main thing.

    Method

    Looking at the sample_tx , the contract address of overtime markets is 0x170a5714112daeff20e798b6e92e25b86ea603c1 . using optimism.core.fact_token_transfers where TO_ADDRESS ilike '0x170a5714112daeff20e798b6e92e25b86ea603c1’ and CONTRACT_ADDRESS ilike '0x8c6f28f2f1a3c87f0f938b96d27520d9751ec8d9' the Number of users, amount $ and number on bet transactions can be found.

    To Identify type of the sports, I have used the code ethereum.public.udf_hex_to_int(substr(segmented_data[17],1,56)) as tags from optimism.core.fact_event_logs to get tags. each sport has a tag, the full list of tags can be found below

    when tags = 9001 then 'NCAA - American Footbal '
      when tags = 9002 then 'NFL - American Footbal '
      when tags = 9003 then 'MLB - Baseball '
      when tags = 9004 then 'NBA - Basketball'
      when tags = 9005 then 'NCAA - Basketball'
      when tags = 9006 then 'NHL - Hockey '
      when tags = 9008 then 'WNBA - Basketball'
      when tags = 9010 then 'MLS - Soccer'
      when tags = 9011 then 'EPL - Soccer'
      when tags = 9012 then 'Ligue 1 - Soccer'
      when tags = 9013 then 'Bundesliga - Soccer'
      when tags = 9014 then 'La Liga - Soccer'
      when tags = 9015 then 'Serie A - Soccer'
      when tags = 9016 then 'UEFA Champions League - Soccer' 
      when tags = 9007 then 'UFC MMA - Fight '
    end sports_type,
    

    To get the the value bettors won from overtime markets, I have looked at event_inputs :value , in the table optimism.core.fact_event_logs where origin_function_signature = '0x85149258' and event_name = 'Burned'

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    • During the last fourteen days, 533 users have been active in overtime markets, and together, they have invested $367 in 2530 transactions in these markets.
    • On a daily basis, about 50 to 70 users have made an average of about 120 to 200 transactions. The daily volume was at its lowest value of 4« and at its highest value it was ~ 102K.
    • It seems that the trend during the last two weeks, except for one particular day (August 14 with $102k - the highest amount in two weeks), all the metrics had a stable trend.

    Findings

    • The most profitable trader, has got 10.9k USD , betting on a Fight game (MMS - Leon Edwards vs Kamaru Usman)
    • Second most profitable trader, has won 7.8k USD, betting on a Baseball game (Boston Red Socks - New york Yankees)
    • Two out of 5 games which most profitable traders profited from were Baseball games