Try Quests to earn cryptoThe Question
Was the Merge a selling event?
Why or why not?
Were miners the source of sell pressure?
Show any wallets miners have transferred ETH into, along with any other visualizations you think will add to your analysis.
Approach
In this dashboard, I have examined the behavior of miners and other users in the days leading up to the merge and days after. These reviews include swap outs as well as transferring Ethereum to other wallets with type separation (Cex or not).
Part 1 - Swap (ETH) out
Findings
In the first step of this section, I have examined the amount of swap outs ==(Sells) by miners== in the days leading up to and following the merge. The results show that miners had a significant jump in selling Ethereum on September 6th as well as on the merge day. These amounts were 1.2 and 1.13 million Ethereum, respectively. Also, on September 18, 652,000 Ethereum was sold by miners.Examining the price of ethereum compared to the amount of its sales by miners shows that on the mentioned days, a negative price shock came to ethereum, for example, on September 15, the price went from 1563 to 1453.
Examining the ==behavior of other users== shows that they have a very small increase (compared to miners) in the amount of Ethereum sales, the number of sellers and avg swap size on the mentioned days, while these metrics show a multifold increase for miners.
ETH Transfers out
In this section, in the first step, the amount of Ethereum sent by users is examined, focusing on its recipients, especially their type (Cex or not). A complete list of Ethereum receivers from miners is provided with the amount of Ethereum and the number of senders. The top 100 receivers are also visible in the chart. Also, the ETH transfer volume from Miners to CEXs is presented on a daily basis. The price of Ethereum can be compared with these values in following chart.
Findings - part 2 :
- According to the obtained results and the graphs presented, on the day of merge and the following day, 15th and 16th of September, a significant jump in the amount of Ethereum sent from miners to Cex is observed. These values show a two to three times increase compared to the previous days. From September 17th to September 25th, the amount of Ethereum transferred to Cexs is much less. Suddenly, on September 26th, a jump is observed again in the amount of Ethereum sent.
- Looking at the following graphs, it can be seen that the amount of Ethereum transferred to not-cexs increased on the 14th and 15th of October, but decreased on the 16th. After that, it faced a decline, but again the ratio of decline was less compared to CEXs.
- In the following, it can also be seen that the amount of Ethereum transferred by other users experienced a significant increase from September 11th to September 14th, and it started to decrease on September 15th.But as discussed before, for miners as senders, It showed an increase on September 15th.
- In the graph of ETH per user to CEXs, it can be seen that this metric has always been two to three times higher for miners than for normal users. But on September 16, this amount has increased to 6 to 7 times.However, on the same day, this metric has faced a significant decrease for other users.
Final words
In this dashboard, an attempt was made to examine the impact of miners compared to other users in the sales pressure created and the drop in the price of Ethereum in the days leading up to and after the merge. According to the obtained results, miners can be considered as the factors causing sales pressure and drop in the price of ethereum. Although the amount of Ethereum they have sold or transferred is not very large compared to the total Ethereum in the market, their coordinated movement of sales on a particular day or two, and the fact that their average holdings,sale and transferred are much higher than normal users, creates Selling pressure and as a result the price of Ethereum has fallen.