Introduction

For this bounty, I will investigate what the peg of stETH compared to ETH is looking like. I will then calculate how much users were gaining or losing for swapping ETH to stETH as well as for swapping stETH for ETH.

Note: I was not able to get the price of ETH directly from Flipside's tables, therefore I have decided to plot WETH - as it follows the price of ETH.

PEG: How much ETH is stETH worth?

Firstly, let's look at the price difference between those two assets.

The peg from stETH compared to ETH is not looking good - right now, stETH is worth only 0.95 ETH! It's clear that the panic of the bear market has caused this de-pegging and it does not seem like stETH will recover any time soon... I will include the peg chart in the rest of the graphs, in order to see if there is any correlation between the amount of ETH users loses by swapping from/to stETH as the peg constantly changes.

How much did users gain or lose by swapping?

As we can see, the charts for the difference in swapping one asset for the other are almost symmetrical. On average, users generally gained by swapping from ETH to stETH and lost by swapping from stETH to ETH. However, there are some spikes where this is reversed and users lost by swapping from ETH to stETH and gained from swapping from stETH to ETH.

When it comes to how the peg affects the amount users gain or lose, it seems to me that as the peg goes down, the amount of ETH gained or lost is directly proportional. In other words, in the most recent event of the peg going down, we can see that users gained a lot more ETH by swapping ETH to stETH and vice versa - lost a lot more by swapping stETH to ETH.

Next, let's look at the overall picture of how much ETH has been lost or gained by combining the two swaps together.

Now the assumption of the gain/loss being proportional to the peg is quite clear. During the time when the peg was quite stable, i.e, in the months of March and April 2022, we can see that users lost very little ETH by doing the swaps - between 0.02 % to 1.3%. In addition, users were also able to gain more ETH, on days such as April 21st, where they gained 3.23% ETH by doing the swaps. Now that the peg has been lost, we can see that users lose/gain a lot more compared to the past. For example, the difference goes as high as +44.5% or as low as -163.9%!

Conclusion

This dashboard has investigated how much ETH users gain or lose by swapping the two assets: ETH and stETH. It has been shown that swapping ETH to stETH can be a risky play, as when stETH lost its peg, users lost quite a significant amount of their ETH. This analysis has also shown that the amount lost or gained is very closely related to the peg - therefore once the peg recovers, users can start gaining their ETH once again!