0. Art Blocks Predictive Analytics

To estimate which art blocks would have a resale in August 2021, I decided to look at the change in average sale price of a collection from June to July. I first found the average sale price of art blocks collections created before August 2021. I then calculated the average sale price of each collection in the month of June and then the average sale price of each collection in the month of July. I found the growth between these different averages and selected for a growth of over 1000%. The collections that fit this criteria were "Fidenza by Tyler Hobbs", "The Blocks of Art by Shvembldr", and "Space Debris [maider] by WhaleStreet x pxlq". I then found individual pieces in each collection that had not yet sold in July, despite the inflation in their collection, and selected these as the pieces most likely to have a resale in August. Unfortunately this method did not have great accuracy in predicting which Art Blocks would have a resale. For the Fidenza collection, 12.29% of the pieces predicted had a resale in August, 6.15% of the pieces predicted had a resale for the Blocks of Art collection, and 3.66% for the Space Debris Collection. Although the accuracy for the projected pieces actually being resold in August was very low, looking at the growth in average sale price of the collection does indeed provide some insight into predicting resale probability. The collection with the highest growth rate looked at here, Fidenza, had the highest accuracy, and the collection with the lowest growth rate, Space Debris, had the lowest accuracy. More research has to be done on the topic, but it seems growth rate could still be a predicator of resale, at the very least comparatively to other collections.