ETH Merge: Selling Event?
What is the Ethereum Merge?
On September 15th, 2022 at 5:00 am UTC, Ethereum officially merged its proof-of-stake Beacon chain with its proof-of-work Mainnet to transition the blockchain to a solely proof-of-work consensus mechanism. This transition will result in an estimated 99.95% reduction in Ethereum’s energy usage and will allow for further scaling of the ecosystem. Instead of miners competing with each other to solve complex math problems, users will now be able to stake 32 ETH to validate transactions on the blockchain, lowering the hardware requirements and energy usage.
Key Takeaways
- The price of ETH has continued its general downtrend over the past few months after the Merge, falling from around $1,600 the day of the Merge, to around $1,400 a day later, and ~$1,300 currently.
- The daily volume of ETH sold for other tokens peaked the day after the Merge went live, with a total of $8.2B ETH sold. The net ETH sold also peaked the day after the Merge, with almost $8B more ETH sold than bought.
- Interestingly each of the 5 most popular coins to swap into from ETH post-Merge were stablecoins, suggesting that users are looking to hold less risky assets in this bear market.
- While ETH volume sold by miners did peak on the day of the Merge, miners were not a significant source of sell pressure as only 3 chose to sell their ETH holdings, and their $2M in sell volume was rather insignificant compared to the $8B total ETH sold that day.
- By far the most popular wallet to transfer ETH into by miners was, 0xdc24316b9ae028f1497c275eb9192a3ea0f67022, the Curve Liquidity Farming contract on Lido Finance. Miners transferred a total of 625 ETH to this contract post-merge.
ETH Price Analysis
The price of ETH has continued its general downtrend over the past few months after the Merge, falling from around $1,600 the day of the Merge, to around $1,400 a day later, and ~$1,300 currently. ETH rose slightly in the week leading up to the Merge, from around $1,600 to just under $1,800, but began to fall again a few days before the Merge went live, and fell sharply immediately after it’s release.
ETH Swap Analysis
Note: ETH sold is defined as the volume of ETH that is swapped for other tokens
The daily volume of ETH sold for other tokens peaked the day after the Merge went live, with a total of $8.2B ETH sold. The net ETH sold also peaked the day after the Merge, with almost $8B more ETH sold than bought. The net volume of ETH sold has been negative every day over the past 30 days, meaning more ETH has been sold than bought each day, signaling a heavy amount of selling pressure from Ethereum holders. By far the greatest volume of ETH sold was on the Curve DEX, where about 76% of all ETH sold post-Merge occurred. Balancer saw the least volume of ETH selling transactions, accounting for less than .5% of all ETH sold. Curve also saw by far the greatest net volume of ETH sold, with almost $800M more ETH sold on Curve post-Merge than bought.
The most popular token to swap into from ETH by volume post-Merge was the USDD token, with over $7B in swap volume. USDD is a stablecoin made by the TRON DAO Reserve. Interestingly each of the 5 most popular coins to swap into from ETH post-Merge were stablecoins, suggesting that users are looking to hold less risky assets in this bear market. The most popular token to swap into by the number of swaps was also a stablecoin, USDC, and the most popular token to swap into from ETH post-Merge by the number of unique swappers was the DAI stablecoin.
Miner Activity Analysis
The daily volume of ETH transferred by miners peaked the day before and the day of the Merge, with ~27,000 ETH transferred the day before and around 30,000 ETH transferred the day of the Merge.
The daily volume of ETH sold by miners peaked the day of the Merge, where ~$1M ETH was sold. While there was over $2M total ETH sold by miners with over 200 total sell transactions post-Merge, only 3 unique miners actually sold their ETH holdings. While ETH volume sold by miners did peak on the day of the Merge, miners were not a significant source of sell pressure as only 3 chose to sell their ETH holdings, and their $2M in sell volume was rather insignificant compared to the $8B total ETH sold that day.
By far the most popular wallet to transfer ETH into by miners was, 0xdc24316b9ae028f1497c275eb9192a3ea0f67022, the Curve Liquidity Farming contract on Lido Finance. Miners transferred a total of 625 ETH to this contract post-merge.