Osmosis Stablecoin Arbs

    Osmosis Stablecoin Arb bots must be super easy to develop and make some decent profit, right? Probably not, see below why.

    Before we start: For the sake of this dashboard I refer to a stablecoin arb as a swap from a stablecoin to a stablecoin that went through at most 2 pools (There aren't pools available for each pair of stables)

    The profit mentioned here is BEFORE gas payment. While you can submit transactions without a fee on Osmosis (At least as of now), you cannot get around a higher than average fee when trying to arb. After all, you gotta be faster than anyone else.

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    The total amount of profit that stablecoin arb bots daily generate is really not a lot.

    There are some really profitable days but on average there are just a couple of dollars to be made every day.

    While this will not make you rich, it's some decent profit, right?

    So lets look a little deeper.

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    How high are the chances that you will be the one to successfully arb?

    Before we can answer that let's look at how the arb profit is distributed amongst different transactions.

    You can see that even on "profitable" days half of arb transactions barely make a profit and even the 80th percentile rarely exceeds 5$. The absolute majority of the profit is done in just a few high value transactions.

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    You can see that thousands of addresses tried their luck doing stablecoin arbs, but less than 10% of them even reach 10$ of profits. In terms of total profits you can also see that the 90% less successful arb traders only make up for ~12% of all profits, leaving each with amounts that barely justify even running the bot.

    Concluding:

    While there certainly are a ~200 unique addresses making some mentionable profit from stablecoin arbing the vast majority of arb traders fail to do it. Given how many addresses already took an attempt at this I highly doubt that a simple price comparing arb bot without more advanced multi hop routes will do any good. This is certainly sad news for me, but at least I did not waste time making something that just does not make any money in the end :)

    Cheers!