Ailing Alameda

    What is the Question?🚨


    Analyze what Alameda is experiencing. Rumors over the weekend began swirling that alameda research is on the brink of insolvency.

    Observe net in and outflows of USD tokens from known Alameda or FTX accounts throughout different chains. Are they going somewhere specifically? Are there any signs of potential insolvency?

    Note any other interesting trends or events you see.

    Analyzed Topics:

    1. Daily Inflows / Outflows / Netfolws of Stablecoins From/To FTX
    2. Total Stabelcoins Inflow / Outflow / Netflow
    3. Daily & Total Outflows From FTX by Destination

    Introductionđźš©


    What is Alameda Research?

    Alameda Research Ventures (ARV) is a multi-stage crypto and fintech investment firm with a mission to take a pragmatic, real-world oriented approach to finance - making it more accessible for all.

    What is FTX?

    FTX is a Bahamian cryptocurrency exchange. FTX is incorporated in Antigua and Barbuda and headquartered in The Bahamas. As of February 2022, the exchange has over one million users. FTX operates FTX.US, a separate exchange available to US residents.

    Who is Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF)?

    Sam Bankman-Fried, also known by his initials SBF, is an American entrepreneur and one of the richest people in crypto thanks to his FTX exchange and Alameda Research trading firm. He is CEO and Founder of FTX and also Alameda Research. The son of two Stanford law professors, he studied physics at MIT but was drawn to "effective altruism," the utilitarian-inflected notion of doing the best possible.

    Method⚡


    In this dashboard, I am going to take a look at the stablecoins inflow and outflow from known Alameda or FTX account throught Ethereum and Solana. The main table that I am going to use for this analysis are ==“ethereum.core.ez_token_transfers”== and ==“ethereum.core.dim_labels”== (for Ethereum) & ==“solana.core.fact_transfers”== and ==“solana.core.dim_labels”== (For Solana).

    At first im going to look at the daily flows of stablecoins from/to FTX/Almaeda wallets thorugh solana and ethereum in the past month, then i analyze this metric in total and after that will take a look at daily & total stablecoin outflows from FTX by destination.

    In this dashboard, i analyzed the data for the past 30 days and made this dashboard on ==2022-11-08==

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    Findingsđź‘€

    • In the above graphs, i showed daily and overall Inflow & Outflow and Netflow of Stablecoins From/To FTX Exchange on Ethereum and Solana blockchains in the last month.
    • As we see, the total netflow of alameda/ftx wallets was negative on both chains and October wasnt a good month for these 2.
    • The net flow on Solana chain is even more negative compared to the Ethereum. Also, we can see the inflow and outflow of transfers from/to FTX and Alameda on Solana chain are way more than Ethereum.
    • The most stablecoin outflow of ftx/alameda wallets on both chains were on past 3 days especially Nov 7th.
    • It seems users did so many panic sells and got fomoed by big crypto guys like Binance CEO CZ.
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    Findingsđź‘€

    • In these charts im showing the daily inflows and outflows and netflow of stablecoins from/to ftx/alameda wallets on ethereum and solana chains.
    • As we see, recently after the beginning of November ouflows increased on Ethereum and the highest ouflow from ftx/alameda wallets was on November 7th and most of it was USDC.
    • It is the same story for solana too, highest daily ouflow was on November and most of it was USDC and a bit USDT.
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    Findingsđź‘€

    • These charts are showing the stablecoins inflow and ouflow from/to ftx wallets on ethereum and solana chains.
    • There were 5 different stablecoins on ethereum in ftx wallets and 2 different stabelcoins on solana such as USDC and USDT, the most popular stabelcoins of crypto community.
    • It looks like USDC is the most popular stablecoin among both chains and its outflow was more than its inflow in the past month.
    • USDC recorded a total of 5.76B inflow and 5.96 Outflow in the past month on ethereum from/to ftx/alameda wallets.
    • This coin also recorded 661M inflow and over 1.1B outflow on solana.
    • As we see, USDC has so much more outflows on solana than ethereum.
    • USDC is at the first place by total flows, then USDT and BUSD will place after it respectively.
    • The left charts say to us that after mid Oct, the FTX stablecoins balance started to decrease and users started to move their stabelcoins from that exchange. This event’s speed increased so fast day by day and in past 3 or 4 days the ftx wallets balances practically reached to almost zero total stablecoin balance and got so close to insolvency.
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    Findingsđź‘€

    • In these charts we are seeing the daily and share of stablecoins outflows from FTX/Alameda wallets by destination.
    • It is obvious in the charts that most of the ouflows on ethereum (Over 78%) recently were to Binance exchange and this event peaked on November 1st, Binance received over 240M stablecoins on ethereum from FTX.
    • Coinbase and Bitfinex exchanges were the most popular destinations for ftx stabelcoins after Binance.
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    Findingsđź‘€

    • In this section, i exactly analyzed the previous part’s stats but this time for Solana chain.
    • We can see most of the FTX stabelcoins on solana were sent to gate.io and coinbase with almost 80% of all the exchanges.
    • These past 3 days were bad days for FTX because so many stablecoins moved out from that exchange because the things happened on twitter and social media as i mentioned earlier.
    • In past days, almost most of the stablecoins sent to Coinbase exchange.

    1. Daily Inflows / Outflows / Netfolws of Stablecoins From/To FTX

    2. Total Stabelcoins Inflow / Outflow / Netflow

    3. Daily & Total Outflows From FTX by Destination

    Conclusionđź’ˇ


    • It can be observed 78% of volume of Stablecoins is Binance followed by coinbase with 7.35%. Daily transferred volume to Binance peaked at $240M in Nov 1th, and nearly $4.4B transferred to Binance in total.
    • The net flow on Solana chain is even more negative compared to the Ethereum. Also, we can see the inflow and outflow of transfers from/to FTX and Alameda on Solana chain are way more than Ethereum.
    • The most stablecoin outflow of ftx/alameda wallets on both chains were on past 3 days especially Nov 7th.
    • As we see, recently after the beginning of November ouflows increased on Ethereum and the highest ouflow from ftx/alameda wallets was on November 7th and most of it was USDC.
    • It looks like USDC is the most popular stablecoin among both chains and its outflow was more than its inflow in the past month.
    • USDC recorded a total of 5.76B inflow and 5.96 Outflow in the past month on ethereum from/to ftx/alameda wallets. This coin also recorded 661M inflow and over 1.1B outflow on solana.
    • USDC is at the first place by total flows, then USDT and BUSD will place after it respectively.
    • It is obvious in the charts that most of the ouflows on ethereum (Over 78%) recently were to Binance exchange and this ecent peaked on November 1st, Binance received over 240M stabelcoins on ethereum from FTX.
    • We can see most of the FTX stabelcoins on solana were sent to gate.io and coinbase with almost 80% of all the exchanges.
    • In general, these discussions were so bad for FTX and its overall funding, by far right now its native token (FTT) dropped almost 80% just in a day, very similar to Terra crash on May.
    • BTW binance CEO CZ promised today to support FTX after all these beefs and fights on twitter and said they made a deal with FTX exchange.
    • Insolvency is so close to alameda and ftx companies or they might went bankrupt at this moment but with the binance help in the future they can recover and get back to the competition or at least I hope Terra’s incident will not be repeated for FTX.

    Author: Sbhn_NP

    Discord : Sbhn_NP#8717

    Twitter : Sbhn_np

    Instagram : Sbhn_NP

    Special Thanks to Alik110

    Thanks for your time!

    SBF vs CZ War: What’s Happening with FTX and Binance?

    Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) and FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), two of the most prominent men in crypto, have been sparring on Twitter. SBF and FTX FUDs and scandals could affect the crypto industry, making this war bigger than them.

    The release of Alameda Research's balance sheet, FTX's sibling quantitative trading firm, started the CZ-SBF drama. Alameda's $14.6 billion assets include $3.66 billion in FTT, FTX's native token, and $2.16 billion in FTT collateral, according to a private document CoinDesk examined. Solana (SOL), Serum (SRM), and other crypto tokens linked to SBF account for $3.37 billion.

    Alameda's net equity is mostly FTX's centrally managed cryptocurrency, which is illiquid. FTT's market valuation is $2.3 billion, while Alameda's numbers reveal an excess of roughly 200% of its circulating supply. Alameda's assets cannot be sold without harming the market.

    CZ tweeted Binance's entire FTT pullout shortly after the breach. Selling it monthly on the open market will limit market impact. CZ attacked SBF, saying liquidating their FTT constitutes post-exit risk management. If a bank run occurred, FTX may repeat history and die.

    Ellison then informed CZ that Alameda will acquire all of Binance's FTT holdings for $22. The crypto community thought the response was desperate and a major red flag. CZ declined the bid and said he won't assist "those that push against other industry participants behind their backs," referring to SBF's reported backing of the DCCPA draft bill last month, which might threaten DeFi.

    If SBF's claimed political attitude is the match and Alameda's financial sheet is gasoline, CZ dumping its whole FTT holdings strikes the match.

    According to Nansen data, FTX stablecoin outflows reached $451 million due to crypto community FUD. FTX withdrawals also take 4-8 hours and cost more, which upsets users. FTT token is down 39% from its weekly high.

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