HODL or Sell (that is the question)

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    Introduction

    Through Lido, users can stake ETH and receive stETH that can be used for passive income.

    stETH receivers can sell their stETHs when its price goes up or hold them and take profit form using them in liquidity pools, lending platforms, Strategies/Aggregators and derivations.

    This dashboard attempts to sheds some lights on the question that stETH holders always face with: HODL or sell?

    Method to choose time frame

    A time period should be chosen to measure the behaviour of stETH holders when they had a big profit or big loss ahead when we look at retrospectively.

    Time period when the price of ETH was much higher than now (the possible big loss) is defined as the period of time that the today's price is 20% higher than the price in all days of that period.

    Time period when the price of ETH was much lower than now (the possible big profit) is defined as the period of time that the today's price is 50% lower than the ETH price in all days of that period.

    The graph below shows how ETH price has been changed over time.

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    Results

    High profit period

    In this period:

    • 1089 wallets have done 1691 staking action with LIDO.
    • The price of ETH at the time of those 1691 staking: 1986.19
    • Today's price 3483.87
    • Average possible profit 75.40%

    The data shows that 77,2% of staking actions has been held.

    The graph below shows the possible profit/loss in each day in the past comparing the price with today's price of ETH.

    We can see that in May 2021, ETH's price started a new cycle. Therefore we will focus on the recent cycle.

    The line shows the percentage of possible profit/loss in case of holding ETH since that day.

    Based on the abovementioned definitions and graph below the two timeframe has been chosen:

    • high loss: between '2021-10-29' and '2021-11-19'

    • high profit: between '2021-07-08' and '2021-07-25'

    High loss period

    In this period:

    • 2653 wallets have done 3781 staking action with LIDO.
    • The price of ETH at the time of those 3781 staking: 4465,68
    • Today's price 3483.87
    • Average possible profit 21.99%

    The data shows that 67,9% of staking actions has been held.

    Conclusion

    Interestingly, the data shows that majority of ETH stakers with LIDO, hold their stETH.

    In possible loss time frame, more stakers sold than the possible profit time frame.