Introduction

Polygon is an Ethereum token that powers the Polygon Network, a scaling solution for Ethereum. Its network aims to provide faster and cheaper transactions than the Ethereum network.

Apart from what advantages and technical features Polygon has, We need to check how the growth rate of this network is changing and whether it is entering a plateau or its usage rate is still increasing. For this purpose, in this article, we will express analyzes to detect changes in the growth rate of the network.

Analysis

Two results of the network growth are the usage amount and the extent of the network. We can use “The number of network transactions in a unit of time” in order to study the amount of network usage, and we can use “The number of unique network users in a unit of time” in order to study the extent of the network. We try to measure the growth rate of the network using these two variables assuming that unit of time is day. So, we first draw the graph of the number of Polygon transactions per day, as well as the graph of the number of unique Polygon users per day.

As we can see above, the daily number of transactions and unique users of Polygon has not changed significantly since the beginning of July and is almost going through a constant trend. The exception to this trend is on June 27th, which is probably related to the RENW token and actually is before the July 1st. However, the bar chart cannot adequately determine the changing trend of a variable. Therefore, by means of a cumulative line chart, we can determine the trends of “increasing of the number of transactions” and “increasing of the number of days-users.”

We can see in the chart above that the slope of the cumulative graphs has remained constant throughout the entire period, including in July. Therefore, this graph also confirms that the transaction process has not faced any stagnation (Significant reduction). Another visual manner for checking the trend of a time series is to use the moving average.

> Simple Moving average (sma) of a time series in any point of time is average of k last values of that time series till that time. In this article we let k=5.

Most of the time series, including the time series discussed in this article, contain some random noises in addition to the trend (and seasonality). So, according to the law of large numbers, the moving average causes these noises to get reduced and therefore the trend of the time series becomes smoother and more verifiable. Therefore, to check the usage and extent of the network, we draw the following diagram.

As you can see in this graph, since the beginning of July, we are facing a decrease in the number of transactions while the number of unique users remains constant. To understand the reason of this fact, consider the bar chart of the number of transactions. You will notice that the number of transactions in the second week of July is generally slightly less than the number of transactions in the first week. This decrease, even though it is small, means a change in the process of using the network, and for this reason, it is clearly indicated in the above diagram. Another variable that can help us analyzing the growth of the network is the change in the total number of network users. The diagram below shows the change process of this variable over time.

As we can see, this line chart has a constant slope at almost all moments, including since the beginning of July. The meaning of this constant slope is that the number of Polygon network users has increased at an almost constant rate during different days and we have had an almost constant number of new users every day. This point shows that the total number of users of this network is not only still increasing, but also the speed of this increase has not decreased. As a result, this analysis also confirms that we can expect the growth of the network in the upcoming days

Conclusion

Based on the analysis that was extracted from Polygon's data, it was concluded that not only Polygon is growing, but also its growth rate has not slowed down recently. These analyzes also conclude that although we have faced a decrease in the number of Polygon transactions in the last week, this decrease is temporary and the possibility of network growth is much higher than its growth stoppage.