Question

The Lil Nouns DAO was created as a sub-DAO from Nouns DAO. The Lil Nouns DAO compensates Nouns DAO by automatically sending every 11th Lil Noun (Lil Noun ids #1, #11, #21, #31 and so on) to the Nouns DAO Treasury. 

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Estimate the total value of the Lil Nouns in the Nouns DAO treasury, and analyze the value of the Lil Nouns DAO to Nouns DAO.

Method

I use the ez_nft_transfers and ez_nft_mints tables to calculate the number of circulating Lil Nouns and the number of Lil Nouns that the DAO holds.

I use the ez_nft_sales table to calculate the average price over time.

• Because of the minting mechanics, the Nouns DAO holds roughly 10% of the circulating supply of Lil Nouns all the time.
• At the moment, the DAO holds a total of 290 Lil Nouns.

If I use the 14-day moving average of Lil Nouns’ price as the average price for each Lil Nouns:

• At the moment, the Nouns DAO has a total of 290 Lil Nouns that have an estimated value of $150k.
• Because the price in ETH has dropped 66% from 1.5 ETH down to 0.5 ETH and the ETH price has also dropped 50% from $2k, the DAO’s holding has dropped from $400k in March down to $150k even though it has doubled the number of Lil Nouns.

=> Overall, because Lil Nouns are minted infinitely, and with the current market condition and 0 utility so far beside governance, the drop in price is predictable.

Within these governance proposals from Lil Nouns:

• The majority of them are just purchasing Nouns either from the open market or from the Nouns DAO.

• The participation’s rate of these proposals are ranging between 10% - 20% of the total supply. With the Nouns DAO holding 10% of the supply, it means they can win any proposal that they want at the moment.

  => Because of the low participation rate and the number of Lil Nouns that the Noun DAO are holding, the Lil Nouns DAO at the moment is nothing more than an extended version of the Nouns DAO.

Conclusion

1. At the moment, the Nouns DAO holds 290 Lil Nouns that have an estimated value of $150k calculated using the 14-day moving average of Lil Nouns’ price.
2. Both the ETH price in USD and the Lil Nouns price in ETH are dropping at the moment making the Lil Nouns price in USD drops significantly.
3. Because of the low participation rate (10% - 20%) between proposals and the Noun DAO are holding 10% of the supply, the Lil Nouns DAO at the moment is nothing more than an extended version of the Nouns DAO.