Patterns of Note

More Token IDs correlate with lower median sales prices (Note: Log Scale) with some key exceptions.

Top 1000 NFT Projects by Total ETH Volume*

• Filtered to at least 10 token IDs and <=100,000 IDs sold ever to limit spam.

Looking at metrics like:

• median, avg, max ETH sale price.
• the # of days with sales, # distinct sales tx.
• the # unique buyers/token IDs with sales
• list price sales vs bids accepted
• Skew between avg and median prices

The only NFT projects to have both 250K+ Lifetime ETH Volume and 50K+ Sale Transactions are (in order of Lifetime Median Sales Price)

• BoredApeYachtClub [28.9]
• Azuki [7.7]
• MutantApeYachtClub [7.5]
• CloneX [4.8]
• PudgyPenguins [3.8]
• Otherdeed [1.8]

It's exceptionally rare to have both 250k+ lifetime ETH volume and 50k+ unique sales transactions (i.e., treating multiple buys at once as 1 purchase).

The only NFT projects to have 50k+ Sales Transactions without a Max sales price exceeding 100x the Lifetime median price (in Max Price order)

• BoredApeYachtClub [1,080.7]
• MutantApeYachtClub [500.0]
• CloneX [450]
• Azuki [420]
• Something [90]
• Checks [52]
• Nakamigos [20]

A Blue Chip Scoring System

Upfront Filters:

• Valuable: At least 1 ETH Lifetime Median Sale Price

A Blue Chip Scoring System

After basic filtering, let's reward NFTs via a scoring system using only 2023 sales:

2023 Value Retention Scoring: 2 points for top 10%, 1 point for top 50%

• Low Skew: The Average and Median prices are close together for sales in 2023
• Liquidity A: # of days with a 1+ sale in 2023
• Liquidity B: Sales at List Price / Sales accepted via Bid in 2023
• Market Interest: # of Unique Buyers in 2023 / # unique token IDs with sales in 2023

Results

• Unexpectedly, BAYC fails the upfront volatility filter, but other Yuga related projects still score.
• Cool Cats is the only project to score in top 10% of all categories.
• Crypto Punks score well despite not being mentioned in previous data exploration.
• The Lifetime 1 ETH Median sale price was key for eligibility, but 34 scored projects did not keep that price in 2023.
  • PUNKS Comic and Lobsterdao were the only 2 projects to score 4+ while being under 1 ETH in 2023.

Is Score Predictive of Price?

No, at least not in the short term. But it might be a useful filter before looking at other (not analyzed) variables.

• The "rotation thesis" argues NFTs and crypto more broadly is hype cycles, where everyone just looks to get in early to the next big thing.

  • If you believe this thesis, then 2023's darlings should quickly become old news.
  • Only 7 projects with a score of 3+ are up in January 2024 vs Median of 2023. (Compared to 3 projects with a score of 1 or 2).

• The "mindshare thesis" argues smart money will look for projects that are well known but undervalued.

  • Only 1 qualifying project with a lifetime median price of 1+ ETH, and a 2023 median below 1 ETH, had a positive Jan 2024. Matr1x 2061 [0.96 ETH to 2.4 ETH]. This may be a good argument against NFTs "making a comeback".

Let's re-assess later this year.