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    Algorand Event prediction Based on Active Daily Wallets

    On-Chain data can deliberately reflect on events happening on a Block chain. For example, a protocol launch, a famous NFT mint phase, airdrops, etc. our approach for solving this Bounty is to show how these events show themselves based on a criteria set by Flipside team which is Active Daily wallets. We aim to compare information from 3 different months of January 2022, January 2021 and December 2021 to show how possibly some notable events will reflect themselves on charts.

    Lets start with last month of 2021. Chart speaks clearly that a major event is happening starting from Dec 19th to Dec 27th. It is well known in Algorand Community that this date coincides with Mainnet Launch of Algofi protocol. But the Question is can Algofi alone be responsible for this sudden sharp increase in Active Daily wallets?

    My personal Answer is yes of course. Algofi is a very powerful financial protocol with tools like Lending, Staking, Liquidity providing, etc, which has no rival in Algorand Ecosystem. Mainnet launch of Algofi means a secure and profitable means for EVERY user in Algorand and outside of it. considering the fact that TVL of Algo in Algofi is more than some of famous CEXs like Coinbase shows it's power and rate of adoption.

    My guess is that it was after reaching full cap of Algofi vaults that Numbers in chart turned back to it's normal steady state.

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    Lets take a look at another Example from January 2022. everything seems fine until Jan 11 and 12 which there seems to be a sudden 50% increase in number of daily active Wallets. what is my guess?

    searching through Algorand Official Twitter page i've noticed that around this time there was 3 big announcements:

    • partnership with quantoz; crypto and fiat transaction processing.
    • a new solution enabling the ability for merchants to accept crypto payments through QuickBooks.
    • Alchemy Pay's crypto-fiat payment network means the ALGO token can be used for business-to-business or customer-to-business payments globally & borderlessly. for me these are perfect and sufficient reasons for that 50% increase! But what about the sudden drop? actually it's not just a sudden drop. in previous chart we saw that Number of transactions fell dramatically after reaching the cap and closing the vault; it came back to it's previous state and continued it's way till around Dec 30th which was the next Cap raise of Algofi. so that two hotspots are probably a hype inside another hype!
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    And if you ask how would it look like when there is no notable events? the answer is readily shown in chart below. there are ups and downs but not that significant to need a reason to justify it. nice and slow, Algorand to the Moon!

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