HODL Or Sell?
Identify accounts that have staked ETH with Lido when the price of ETH was much higher or much lower than it is now. Have they held or sold their stETH?
Introduction & Methodology
Did you know that people were staking ETH with Lido back from Dec 2020?! I think those are the people that received LIDO airdrop (This can be another bounty to solve, right?). Anyway, this shows how deep are the roots of Lido and stETH in Market and where the trust comes from.
Considering this fact, We know that there were people who staked their ETH when the price and adoption was much lower, also definitely there are people who staked ETH and very high prices. We are going to see if they Hodled their initial staked ETH, sold it, or even Staked/bought more?
I chose two different time period representing low and high price for ETH which you'll see shortly. then checked current stETH balance for those wallets to se how they stand versus their initial position. And finally I checked to see if any of these buyers from different periods are among top 100 hodlers of stETH.
Data & Analysis
Lets start with price chart of stETH and ETH to see which time periods are more suitable for our purpose.
I chose this two periods:
- Low price from 2020-12-23 to 2021-02-01
- high price from 2021-10-19 to 2022-01-01
This is Fairly subjective but i tried to chose a period that matches out intent for this bounty. You can check these periods in chart below.
Our next two charts are fairly simple and straight forward. It shows how many of stakers from each period Hold, sell or buy stETH.
- Low price stakers were mostly sellers while 18 percent of them still hodling the exact amount.
- 5 percent kept buying and now have more than what they started with.
- high price staker are better hodlers/diamond hands. But this is a close competition and sellers are not going to let them be.
- It seems that element of time has a significant role here; although people from the earlier period bough way cheaper but they also had to wait more and also saw two half bull run which is hard to resist (We now know that they did good).
In the end lets see how many of these buyers are now among the top 100 stETH holders?
- High price stakers? 5!
- Low price stakers? Only 1!