This analysis was featured in OurNetwork Issue #203 on 5 February 2024.

1. Blur maintains its longstanding lead by sales volume

Although no business landscape in web3 is set in stone, the NFT trading volume war on Ethereum appears to be over for the moment with the outcome decided. The once-incumbent leader OpenSea currently sits at less than 17% of the NFT market’s USD volume on Ethereum ($122.5M in the most recent full week), while the NFT-flip-friendly disruptor Blur has amassed a consistent market share in the high 70s (79% most recently, aka $25.6M a week).

3. Does OpenSea have an endgame in mind?

Far from unconcerned with the future, OpenSea puts hopes into their non-$ results (as it maintains 3x of Blur’s number of collections sold and 2x unique buyer wallets), combined with a 2.0 version of their marketplace, to dial up the non-fungible competition not related to JPEG flipping: art drops, collectors & physical brands.

2. When markets grew, Blur rose on the tide – but OpenSea did not

Activity on Blur aligns more closely with broader crypto market trends than on OpenSea. When many fungible tokens rallied in late 2023, volume on Blur rose in turn, from $6-20M to $20-45M weekly, with by a jump in median NFT prices (as high as $645 on Jan. 8). OpenSea's weekly volume however, stayed between $2-9M during that time. Its median NFT price over the same period did not surpass $173 (on Dec. 4).

💦🔬 Tx-Level Alpha

While OpenSea is a buyer’s playground with galleries and art drops, Blur is a seller’s cash cow with hot resale and generous airdrop policies. OpenSea’s top buyer made ~4x more purchases in 2023 than its top seller – sales, while this metric is reversed for Blur (6x more activity for the top seller than buyer).

One example of a regular Blur whale made 3.2M $BLUR (worth $1.8M+ at the time of writing) in this airdrop transaction, having made 1,708 lifetime purchases ($25.7M) & 505 sales ($24.4M).