Try Quests to earn cryptoBounty Brief #29 - 5. Galactic Punks
This dashboard is my analysis to answer a very simple question: How much UST has been deposited into the lottery since it’s inception? What has been the average UST deposit amount?
To answer that question we should remember that users can both deposit or withdraw their UST into or from Pylon NFT Galactic Punks lottery at any time. This assumption makes this calculation more difficult if we want to know what is the current state of the pool because we have to check both. It might be even more difficult if we would like to know the average deposit. To do that I assume that:
- average deposit is calculated per each Terra wallet
- it doesn't matter how many times user did a deposit/withdrawal - only how much that user has put into the pool (historical average deposit) and how much from that is still in the pool (current average deposit)
- if a current balance of UST in the pool for a wallet is equal zero, meaning all previously deposited UST have been already withdrawn, such wallet is skipped for current average deposit measure calculation
According to https://gateway.pylon.money/nft/galactic-punks the pool drops Galactic Punk every 5 days. We can imagine a case in which users deposits huge amount of UST just before a draw (its time is known before) and then withdraw everything few minutes after. To overcome that problem Pylon put a disclaimer:
The ticket for lottery is reflected by calculating the amount and time period deposited. If you withdraw UST in the middle or make a deposit right before NFT drop, it would not be reflected for the upcoming NFT drop.
Let's have a look if players are aware of that.
Pylon NFT Galactic Punks lottery started on 27th Oct 2021. It's first days after start were very successful in getting funds. Over 6,000,000 UST collected in first 3 days. First draw happened around 2nd Nov 2021 13:00 UTC. Just one day before the 1st draw we observed increased interest in getting into the train but what happened one day after was a kind of spectacular. Over 3,000,000 UST have been withdrawn from the pool. I guess many of the players were disappointed after results of draw have been published.
If we will take a look one more time on deposits and withdrawal figures but just before 1st draw (2021-11-02 13:00 UTC) we could also find an answer on what was a chance to win a single Galactic Punk.
So here we see that total amount of UST in pool was almost 7.5M UST with an average deposit being close to 2.8k UST. That gives us around 0.04% chance to win or in other words, a chance of winning having an average deposit is like 1 to 2681.