Gnosis Recent Activity Analysis
There’s been some unusual activity with Gnosis as pointed out by our community. Time to figure out exactly what’s going on.
Take a deep dive into recent activity on Gnosis, especially recent rapid rises in the number of active users, transactions, and more. Make any hypothesis you can about what is driving this activity. Is there a new dapp that launched? Is there some incentive program going on? Or is the spike in users/txns due to some sybil attack?
What is GNOSIS? (GNO)
Gnosis aims to provide an open-source infrastructure for prediction markets built on Ethereum.
If you’re unfamiliar, a prediction market is a type of marketplace, not unlike an exchange, except instead of trading assets, users trade the outcome of events. Often restricted by regulators, it is believed cryptocurrencies hold the potential to decentralize the operation of prediction markets, opening their access across the globe.
This is the idea behind the Gnosis prediction market platform, a blockchain enabling users to trade cryptocurrencies that are representative of event outcomes on an open market.
As the events unfold and outcomes become clear, Gnosis tokens gain or lose value depending on what was predicted by the user.
Gnosis’ goal is to build an infrastructure for many decentralized applications that can act as forecasting tools, sources of information and standards for predictive assets in this market.
By allowing access from any party to its platform and aggregating public opinion in an uncensored source, Gnosis believes it can build a reliable forecasting tool that could have applications for decision-makers in finance, government and insurance, among other sectors.
The Gnosis software uses two cryptocurrencies, GNO and OWL, both of which help ensure its transactions are reliable and distributed. Today, Gnosis continues to make progress toward its ambitious goals, but it is by no means alone, facing market competitors like Augur (REP).
- The total number of transactions happened in Gnosis was 93.8M transactions.
- The total number of unique wallets in Gnosis was 2M.
- Total transactions fee happened in Gnosis was 3.79M(in MATIC).
As we can see, the number of transactions happened on daily basis from January,’20 to till now.
- In initial days, the transactions happened was quite low, and from July,’20 the transactions count got increased.
- Later, from the beginning of 2021, the transactions count were increasing rapidly.
- The highest number of transactions happened in October 3rd,’21 with 460.8K transactions.
- Later, from this year, the transactions are quite decreased compared to last year.
As we can see, in the above the number of active wallets participated over time.
- As the number of transactions is low in 2020, the active wallets count is also low.
- The active wallets varies from 100 to 2 to 3K, suddenly in July 16th the active wallets count increasing to 100.7K.
- Later, in 2020 the active wallets count started increasing gradually, and also it reaches to 106K active wallets at some day in 2021.
- But in 2022, the active wallets count was quite low compared to last year.
Now we will see the transaction fee on daily basis,
- In initial days, the transaction fee was very low.
- From 2021, the transaction fee got higher, but from the middle of this year the transaction fee again fallen to very low.
- The total number of native xDAI transfers is 11.29M.
- And the total amount transferred through native xDAI transfers is 2.89B$.
As we can see above, the number of xDAI transfers over time.
- As the number of transactions and active wallets is quite low in 2020, the xDAI transfers and total amount transferred was also low.
- Both the xDAI transfers and the volume is high in the year 2021.
- Maximum xDAI transfers happened in August 4th,’21 with 139K transfers.
- And the maximum amount transferred through xDAI transfers in May 12th,’22 with 119M.
From the above charts, we can easily depict that
- There is a rapid rise in the Number of Transactions on October 4th, 2022 i.e., 162.7k from 63k on October 3rd.
- There is a rapid rise in the Number of Active Users on October 5th, 2022 i.e., 57.3k from 2.6k on October 4th.
- Similarly we can see a peak in the Transfers on October 4th, which is 45.5k and October 5th, which is 65.3k compared to October 3rd, which is 11.7k. Again on October 6th, there is rapid decrease which is 10k transfers.
From the above points, we can say there is an Unusual activity happened either on October 3rd or October 4th. Let’s look into the Volume and Fee flow on the same time period.
The above charts which shows us the Transaction Fee flow & Transferred Volume flow is not similar to the Transactions & Active Users Trends. Inspite of the more number of users with more number of transactions on October 4th & October 5th, we didn’t see any peak on Transaction Fee or Transferred Volume. But from the above charts, we can say that there is rise in the Transferred Volume & Transaction Fee from October 11th to October 15th.
To find the root cause behind the Unusual Activity,
As there is rise in both the Transactions & Active users, let’s look into the recipients (TO Address) and how many transactions done by the recipients.
The below donut charts shows us:
The Top Recipients (To Address) who interacted with the more Active Users (From Address)
The Top Recipients (To Address) who participated in the more number of Transactions
From the above chart, we can clearly say that
- The Address 0x37efe9b31830653039edc3b212a6e1b882cd46b4 has the highest interaction with the unique Active Addresses.
- From the
dim_labels
table, we found that the above address 0x37efe9b31830653039edc3b212a6e1b882cd46b4 is not a Contract, it is just a Wallet*.*
Is this wallet causing noise on Gnosis
?
Let’s deep dive into the Transactions/transfers from & to the wallet 0x37efe9b31830653039edc3b212a6e1b882cd46b4
From the above chart, we can clearly say that
- The Address 0xc38d4991c951fe8bce1a12beef2046ef36b0fa4a receives the most number of Transactions.
- From the
dim_labels
table, we found that the above address 0xc38d4991c951fe8bce1a12beef2046ef36b0fa4a is a CONTRACT whose name is AMB Rinkeby Bridge.
Is this Contract causing any noise on Gnosis
?
Let’s deep dive into the Transactions done from & to the wallet 0xc38d4991c951fe8bce1a12beef2046ef36b0fa4a
The above bar charts shows us the Recent Activity of Wallet 0x37efe9b31830653039edc3b212a6e1b882cd46b4.
- We can clearly say that this is an Unusual Activity because on October 5th, 2022 between 7 AM to 10 AM, we see that there are 54136 Transactions happened to the wallet 0x37efe9b31830653039edc3b212a6e1b882cd46b4.
- The another suspicious thing is the number of users participated in the transactions is also 54136. From the above chart, we can see that the Number of Transactions is equal to the Number of Active Users.
- From the another graph, we can see that Nearly 539 xDAI is transferred to the wallet from 54136 Users.
- Then immediately at 11 AM, the wallet 0x37efe9b31830653039edc3b212a6e1b882cd46b4 transferred 538 xDAI to DXSwapRouter address which means the amount is transferred to another wallet or account.
Hence, it is very clear that a WALLET got 538 xDAI from 54136 Users in a span of 4 hours and then again 538 xDAI is transferred to other account immediately
What is AMB Rinkeby Bridge?
The main use case of the Arbitrary Message Bridge (AMB) between the Rinkeby Testnet and the xDai chain is to relay tokens emitted by Reddit (e.g. Moons and Bricks) to a chain with real value (xDai) through the AMB extensions.
DApp developers may also find this pair of chains useful for their cross-chain applications. In order to organize cross-chain communication, applications can implement their own AMB extension. This is represented by two mediator contracts so that either assets or arbitrary data can be transferred between chains. The deployed mediator contracts do not require a set of oracles to be setup, providing the main functionality to end users immediately, without needing to spend resources on setting up the entire infrastructure.
Let’s look into the recent activity done by the AMB Rinkeby Bridge Contract i.e., 0xc38d4991c951fe8bce1a12beef2046ef36b0fa4a
The observations from the above charts are:
- All the transactions to AMB Rinkeby Bridge are done by only 3 addresses i.e., 0xcbfe6a67319d85b0ad56fd4d7d6d13c26e141904, 0x0681f11412c27035f694d7bd6691bf03fb413ff3 & 0xf38f1a8e0dab6a8df95a29135796ae39137b9cee which are almost equal in number.
- The another bar chart shows us the Transactions status done by the above 3 addresses to the AMB Rinkeby Bridge. From the chart, we can clearly see that almost more than 90% of Transactions got Failed i.e., from every address, we see around 25k transactions are succeeded and around 300k transactions got failed.
This Activity clearly shows that there is some issue with the AMB Rinkeby Bridge Contract.
OR This might be due to the announcement of deprecation of Rinkeby Testnet on Etherscan as shown.
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Conclusion:
From all the above charts & information, we can conclude that:
Recent Activity on GNOSIS:
- Number of Transactions on October 4th, 2022 is 162.7k compared to 63k on October 3rd.
- Number of Active Users on October 5th, 2022 is 57.3k compared to 2.6k on October 4th.
- Transfers on October 4th is 45.5k and October 5th is 65.3k compared to 11.7k on October 3rd.
Unusual Activity on GNOSIS:
- The Wallet 0x37efe9b31830653039edc3b212a6e1b882cd46b4 got 538 xDAI from 54136 Users with 54136 transactions in a span of 4 hours and then again transferred those 538 xDAI to other account immediately.
- More than 90% of Transactions done by the 3 addresses 0xcbfe6a67319d85b0ad56fd4d7d6d13c26e141904, 0x0681f11412c27035f694d7bd6691bf03fb413ff3 & 0xf38f1a8e0dab6a8df95a29135796ae39137b9cee to the AMB Rinkeby Bridge got Failed i.e., from every address, we see around 25k transactions are succeeded and around 300k transactions got failed.
The unusual activity might be due to the following reasons:
A programming bot to create noise on the block chain OR The deprecation of Rinkeby Testnet on Etherscan.
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