Owentell | Flipside Analyst

    Owentell

    Joined Jun 16, 2021
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    47Upvotes
    26. [Hard] Network Load

    26. [Hard] Network Load

    Dec 8, 2021 - This dashboard looks at network load on the THORChain network, which allows for the transfer of assets from differing blockchains, for example, a swap of BTC for ETH. THORChain has experienced several network shutdowns since its inception, some due to audits while others due to hacks or other network issues. The first metric in this dashboard looks at the volume of swaps per minute on the network. The minute with the highest number of swaps was on October 22nd at 3:44 AM, where 149 swaps were made. The month with the highest number of minutes in the top 10 was June, which had the highest swaps per minute four times. The next metric looks at the maximum daily swaps per minute, which as mentioned earlier belongs to October 22nd 2021, by a wide margin. The second highest has almost 40 swaps less. The maximum one-minute swap number seems to remain relatively stable from about mid-June 2021 to now, with mid-April to mid-June 2021 having a significantly lower one-minute number of swaps. The final metric in this dashboard looks at the minutes with the highest swap volume in USD. By far the greatest swap volume occurred on July 15th, 2021, at 7:36 AM, with a swap volume of almost $3.5 million. Interestingly enough, none of the top ten minutes with the highest number of swaps were in the top ten minutes by swap volume. This suggests that a few large trades are more likely to make up most of a high-volume minute than a large number of smaller trades.

    Owentell
    117. [Hard] Terrarbitage, Part 1

    117. [Hard] Terrarbitage, Part 1

    Dec 16, 2021 - This dashboard looks at arbitrage opportunities in respect to bLUNA and LUNA price fluctuations over time. bLUNA, or bonded LUNA, is LUNA that has been bonded utilizing the Anchor protocol, and in theory should be worth almost the same as LUNA, despite a small discount accounting for the fact that it is bonded for 21 days. In reality, this is not the case, as increases in LUNA's price can lead to a larger price difference than intended. This opens the door for arbitrage opportunities, as users can swap their LUNA for the cheaper bonded LUNA, and then swap back once the exchange rate stabilizes. The first graph in this dashboard looks at the daily LUNA and bLUNA prices in USD. While we can see that there's a miniscule difference, it's hard to see much from tis graph as the prices are so similar. Since there's usually only very small price differences between LUNA and bLUNA, the next graph looks the daily price difference between the two. While most days have little difference, some days stand out, such as September 23rd of 2021, where the price of bLUNA was about $1.40 higher than LUNA. In this case, only someone already holding bLUNA could take advantage of the opportunity, as swapping from bLUNA to LUNA would yield a higher amount of LUNA than normal. The next graph looks at the percent difference in LUNA and bLUNa price. The price difference on September 23rd was a staggering 7%, with the next highest differences only around 4%. Interestingly, looking at both of these graphs, we can see that the largest arbitrage opportunities involve a higher bLUNA price compared to LUNA. This means that users can earn the most by swapping from bLUNA to LUNA, so when swapping from LUNA to bLUNA, it may make sense to hold the bLUNA until a high arbitrage opportunity occurs. The average daily percent difference in bLUNA and LUNA price is .2426%. The possible APR scenarios from arbitrage depend on the amount of compounding over the year, or how often advantageous trades from bLUNA to LUNA are made. Using the average price difference, we can assume each trade would net an increase of about .2426% of the LUNA traded. If a user made an advantageous trade every month, the APR would be ((1 + .002426)^12 - 1), or about 3%. Now if we change that to every week, the APR would be ((1 + .002426)^52 - 1), 13%, or every day, (1 + .002426)^365 - 1, 142%. This is assuming the trader started with a certain amount of LUNA, let's say 50, and then used that amount plus the gain from each previous trade on each subsequent trade. Looking at these numbers, we can see that if arbitrage opportunities in the bLUNA and LUNA price difference are taken often, a large amount of LUNA can be made.

    Owentell
    112. [Easy] Who Validates the Validators

    112. [Easy] Who Validates the Validators

    Dec 15, 2021 - This dashboard looks at different metrics of Terra validators, and more specifically, what defines an excellent validator. As one might guess, validators validate transactions on the Terra network, but they also have a major role in governance. LUNA holders can stake their tokens to validators, and the validator gets voting power proportional to the amount of LUNA staked to it. In return, the LUNA staker earns a percentage of the revenue the validator generates. This revenue comes from computing fees, stability fees, seignorage rewards, and swap fees. There are two main metrics that a Terra user can look at to decide which validator to delegate to, uptime and commission. Uptime is the amount of time the validator will be running, ideally 100%, and commission is how much of a commission the validator takes, so the lower the better. Another metric to look at is how much self-bonded LUNA the validator has, as more represents more of a stake in the ecosystem. The top 5 validators in terms of voting power as of now are Staking Fund, Orion.Money, B-Harvest, DokiaCapital, and Certus One. Looking at the graph in this dashboard, we can see that Staking Fund and Orion.Money are far above the others in terms of voting power and are currently head-to-head. So, what makes Terra users delegate to these validators over others? All of these top 5 validators currently have a commission of less than 10%, with Staking Fund and Certus One having a 10% commission, and the others having a 5% commission. In addition, each of them has an uptime of 100%, meaning they are constantly active and earning rewards. Interestingly, self-delegation does not seem to be a contributing factor in choosing validators, as the top validator, Staking Fund, has only .02% self-bonded, and Orion.Money has 0.0% self-bonded. In conclusion, the most important metrics in choosing validators seem to be an exceedingly high uptime, ideally 100%, and a commission of 10% or less, with not much thought given to self-delegation.

    Owentell
    19. [Hard] Wen Sushi moon?

    19. [Hard] Wen Sushi moon?

    Dec 24, 2021 - This graph looks at different metrics of SUSHI price versus other decentralized exchanges, to determine whether SUSHI is a good investment. In my opinion, a good coin to invest in rises in price as the adoption/usage of its protocol increases. I first wanted to look at how the price of SUSHI compared to the volume on Sushiswap and the number of swaps completed. The price of SUSHI did not correlate much with volume on the platform, although it did somewhat correlate to the number of swaps completed. Interestingly, even though the number of swaps has recently increased, the price of SUSHI has decreased. I next looked at how the price of UNI, the token of the Uniswap exchange, compared to the number of swaps competed on the platform. The price of UNI is heavily correlated to the number of swaps on the platform, which is a good sign. However, both the price of UNI and number of swaps has seen a heavy downtrend over the last year, which does not make it an appealing investment. The last coin I looked at was the CRV coin, the price of which has actually been inversely correlated to the number of swaps completed. Even though the number of swaps has been steadily declining, the price of CRV has substantially increased over the last few months. This means that the price may see a correction soon, as it's increase is not actually tied to an increase in number of users on the platform. These factors make me hesitant to recommend any of these coins as a good investment.

    Owentell